Blog

18 Nov

Gold Shares (GLD) support into early 2016

You may recall in a number of videos I’ve shot over the last few years, the most recent being last July, that my longer-term opinion in Comex Gold and the GLD became bearish following a violation in February of 2013 of a steeply ascending channel bottom. This event essentially indicated the party’s over, and that the Gold market was vulnerable to giving back the lion’s share of its preceding 5-7 year gains. In a July 2015 video I once again illustrated my long-term downside target for Comex Gold. I’m using Comex Gold because it has decades of historic data and perspective to draw from in determining long-term support, whereas the GLD has only existed since 2004.

By using a segment of last July’s video I illustrate again the mathematical relationships used in determining long-term objective support for Comex Gold. The 875 1980 high forms the basis, using it and the 1999 low, along with the 20111 high to find a convergence of Fibonacci relationships based on the 35 year price extremes. This is a static support region on the Comex Gold chart that will remain indefinitely at 875.0-913.5. The correlation in the GLD fluctuates marginally, and is currently found between 83.00-86.50, remaining a long-term downside target for the GLD.

Nearer term the GLD encounters two convergent descending channel bottoms in Nov at 96.41 – 98.31 that, if tested, can contain quarterly selling pressures – potentially eliciting what has become a fairly typical 3-5 month countertrend rally. This support region drops to 95.78-97.04 in December, to 95.15-95.76 in January, and 94.48-52 in February. Nevertheless, given my longer-term bearish dynamic a monthly settlement below these formation should not come as a great surprise, the targeted 83.00-86.50 region than expected within a mere 2-3 months, able to contain selling through 2016, quite possibly the balance of the decade.

Near-term upside resistance is found at 113.93 able to contain monthly buying pressures when tested, with a monthly settlement above 113.93 reversing momentum into later Q1, the 126.02-130.84 region then considered a 3-5 month target, narrowing monthly and able to contain strength through 2016, below which I continue to maintain a 12 to 18 month, 83.00-86.50 objective, illustrated earlier in this video. You can stay top of all the upside buy signals and downside sell signals over the coming months by subscribing to my Monthly ETF snapshot, only 19.99 a month. Stay tuned over the coming weeks and months for more market analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

SPY: SP-500 SPDR ETF
17 Nov

SPY: SP-500 SPDR ETF

This blog was posted, and accompanying video recorded, on Tuesday, November 17, 2015. It addresses the mid to longer-term outlook for the S&P 500 spider ETF, symbol SPY. A quick note that I provide regular spy analysis in both my Weekly Spy Report, delivered every Sunday for the following week, and my Monthly ETF Snapshot, delivered on the first trading day of the month.

I like to start with big picture analysis, and work my way into a near-term focus. Let’s back up a bit to February 2013, when the SPY elicited a long-term, 3-5 year buy signal by closing the month above a decade-long slightly descending channel top. Under these scenarios, when the market pushes beyond a longer-term horizontal formation and into uncharted territory, one of the first formulas I calculate is a full extension of that formation. It was a target I illustrated in the March 2013 edition of the Monthly ETF Snapshot, and since then have continued to remind subscribers of it every week – currently found at 233.44. This level happens to line up nicely within an ascending channel top projected off the 2009 low that comes in at 231.31 for the month of November 2015.

It was in fact the bottom of the same channel formation, currently at 186.92 for the month of November, that contained the August 2015 selloff low, and remains capable of containing selling through 2016. Nearer-term upside resistance at 214.07 can contain strength into the 1st Qtr, once tested the market vulnerable to retesting the 186.92 channel-bottom again within 1-2 months. In essence, for what could be the next 3-5 months, the SPY remains in a congestive, narrowing wedge between 186.92 support and 214.07 resistance, these levels changing monthly, inside of which two-sided activity can play out well into the first quarter of 2016.

Nonetheless, given the longer-term bullish dynamic, a monthly or even weekly settlement above the 214.07 formation should not come as a great surprise, and would present our next meaningful midterm buy signal, then indicating 3-5 months of upward continuation to our long-term target in the lower 230.00’s. Downside, a violation of the 186.92 formation would not indicate an end to the almost seven-year bull market, but would in fact signal a quick test of 180.93, the start of a narrowing range of support down the 174.19, rising monthly and capable of containing selling through the balance of the decade. The 174.19 level is an ascending one third speed line projected off the 2009 low, an indicator I’ve used in my analysis for many years and value for its trend defining capabilities. While certainly not expected over the next year, a monthly settlement below the 174.19 speed-line would present an ugly equity market, and probably macroeconomic scenario over the following year or two of activity. We’ll cross that bridge if we get to it.

10 YEAR US Treasury Note
02 Nov

10 YEAR US Treasury Note

The embedded video will update you on the mid to longer-term technical structure currently playing out in the 10YR US T-Note futures. This market is regularly covered in my Monthly Futures Wrap, with the current October 2015 issue depicting a long-term, 7-year ascending channel-bottom presently at 124.250 that has held repeatedly over the last 18 months of trade. This long-term formation encapsulates the descending trend in longer-term interest rates since the 2008 financial implosion, one that continues so long as monthly settlements above the 124.250 formation remain a fact.

A simple trendline off the 2012 and early 2015 highs, currently at 129.315, managed to hold October highs, thus forming a narrowing wedge between it and the 124.250 channel-bottom. Holding below the 129.31.5 trend line – dropping to 129.270 in November, and to 129.225 in December – allows a retest over the next 3-5 months of the 124.250 channel-bottom, a formation capable of containing selling through 2016.

While not expected between now and the end of the year, a monthly settlement below the 124.250 formation, which rises to 124.300 in November, and to 125.030 in December, would signal a continued collapse into the 117.00 – 118.225 region over the following 8-12 months, an event that in my opinion would also run parallel with a series of Fed rate hikes, the 117.00 – 118.225 region able to absorb selling through the balance of the decade and a meaningful downside inflection point over the same time horizon.

That essentially covers the mid to longer-term downside scenarios. Given the continued state of a longer-term bull market above the 124.250 region, an upside violation over the next 3-5 months of 129.315 trendline resistance remains the more probable scenario. This trendline drops to 129.270 in November, and to 129.225 in December, with a monthly settlement above indicating upward continuation over the following 2-3 months into the 132.095 region, able to contain strength through 2016 and a meaningful upside acceleration point over the same time horizon. Meaning: a monthly settlement above the 132.095 channel-top, rising to 132.135 in November and to 132.175 in December, would indicate not only a retest within 3-5 months of the 135.155, 2012 high, but more than likely 12-18 months bullish continuation into the 140.250-141.25 region, this event likely to run parallel with a depressed interest rate environment likely to involve continued economic challenges within China, Europe, and even the US.

Stay tuned for more market analysis blogs and videos. They should become a weekly event by early 2016.

07 Oct

Debt-Ceiling Showdown E-Mini SP-500

Opening today below the 1476.25 ** level is likely, able to contain strength into later week, 1468.25 able to contain initial selling, below which 1651.25 is attainable intra-day, likely to contain session weakness. Given the continued “dare not blink” deadlock in Washington over the fiscal funding / debt-default ceiling showdown, today’s illustrated 1640.25 level is expected this week following a settlement today below 1676.25. We’re reducing it’s containment potential to “weekly” only (1640.25 ***), for if the powers-that-be refuse to bend into next week, longer-term support at 1593.75 is certainly in reach over this time horizon (before Oct 17 deadline).

16 Sep

SPY SDPR S&P 500 ETF – Bullish

Last week’s settlement above 167.30 indicates upward continuation over the next several weeks into the 175.00 – 176.55 region. In fact, a daily settlement early this week above 170.96 allows 175.00-176.55 this week, a range of mid-term resistance able to contain buying through the balance of 2013. Keep in mind last February’s ultra-long term buy signal remains firmly intact, and so a weekly settlement above 176.55 (rising weekly) by some point in October should not come as a great surprise, and if so bullish acceleration through the balance of the year would be expected, 203.80 then considered a viable 3-5 month target. Downside the market reverses below 163.65, a scenario we’re not expecting over the next several weeks – though September is known for its surprises. If so, a weekly settlement below 163.65 indicates 154.77 – 157.99 within several weeks, midterm support likely to absorb selling through the balance of the year. Get the highly specific breakdown in this week’s SPY Report by emailing us at info@artacadvisory.com. We’ll send it to you at no cost or obligation.

16 Apr

Gold ETF & Futures Collapse 2013 (update 4-16-13)

Despite yesterday’s violation of 1353.30 (illustrated in yesterday’s letter and still in current video), it remains capable of session containment today, 1398.50 in reach and able to contain session strength. Pushing through 1398.50 allows 1427.00 intra-day, also able to contain session strength, and the level to settle above for signaling 1464.40 – 78.60 within the week, able to contain strength through next week. Though not expected this week, closing above 1478.60 signals 1522.50 within 3-5 days (hours?), primary mid-term resistance able to contain strength into May activity, below which long-term support at 1285.6 –1303.9 is expected within April time horizon. Downside, breaking 1353.30 signals 1328.50, able to contain session weakness, below which 1285.60–1303.90 is expected intra-day, targeted long-term support able to contain selling through May, possibly later year.

15 Apr

Gold Collapse Quickly Yields Target Objective

Following the February long-term sell signal, and the secondary signal elicited at the end of last week (Friday, April 12), Comex Gold (June) is very close to testing its 1353.30, 3-5 week target objective, which can contain selling through May activity. Keep in mind we expect the 1285.60 – 1303.90 region over the next 8-12 weeks (days?), with later 1213 allowing 1086.50.

What’s more, the active Gold ETF (symbol GLD), has slipped through it’s near-term 133.96 target, with a daily settlement below 133.96 allowing 123.85 – 125.67 within the week (given heightened volatility), able to contain selling through May, possibly into summer trade.

The newsletter and video contained within the previous post shows all the technical details. Stay tuned!

15 Apr

Weekly Gold analysis for April 15, 2013

Last week’s Gold sell-off elicited a secondary sell signal in both COMEX Gold as well as the GLD ETF that should continue to play out over the next 3-5 weeks. This occurred within the context of February’s long-term sell signal that is expected to weigh on this market into later year.

The printable PDF newsletter lower left provides this week’s key support and resistance levels and relevant near-term charting for both Comex Gold (June) and the GLD, while the 10 minute video just below it provides full commentary, and a deeper level of long-term analysis not available within the printable letter. The video is expandable to full-screen.

If you have any questions shoot us an e-mail, or if you’d like a free trial in the Weekly Gold Letter either send an e-mail, or fill out the free trial form at right (please mention “Gold” in the additional comments field). Thanks!

artac_sample

 

12 Apr

ETF Market Report April 2013: The Bond Bubble

     As interest rates have declined over the last several years to historic lows, financial speculation has grown concerning the existence and eventual puncturing of a “bond price bubble”.  The April ETF Market Report analyzes both mid and long term US Treasuries, US Corporate Bonds, and provides an update on last month’s Mortgage Backed Security market, all in an effort to not only determine when the so-called bubble will burst, but whether it actually exists.

     In the eight minute video below Cary Artac  illustrates key support in the above markets, all of which find popular, high-volume counterparts in the growing universe of exchange traded funds.  In the video we provide the downside trigger-points for possible bond market price-collapse into later year. While they have yet to occur, each market is nevertheless trading very close to key support – above which each bond fund remains bullish into later year, and below which an institutional migration away from fixed income and into larger equity holdings would be expected through the balance of 2013.

     Have a “look see”, and if you’re interested in viewing the current, nine-page print edition of our monthly ETF Market Report (April 2013), just fill out our free trial form at right and we’ll be happy to provide the April letter at no cost or obligation. Thanks for visiting!