You may recall in a number of videos I’ve shot over the last few years, the most recent being last July, that my longer-term opinion in Comex Gold and the GLD became bearish following a violation in February of 2013 of a steeply ascending channel bottom. This event essentially indicated the party’s over, and that the Gold market was vulnerable to giving back the lion’s share of its preceding 5-7 year gains. In a July 2015 video I once again illustrated my long-term downside target for Comex Gold. I’m using Comex Gold because it has decades of historic data and perspective to draw from in determining long-term support, whereas the GLD has only existed since 2004.
By using a segment of last July’s video I illustrate again the mathematical relationships used in determining long-term objective support for Comex Gold. The 875 1980 high forms the basis, using it and the 1999 low, along with the 20111 high to find a convergence of Fibonacci relationships based on the 35 year price extremes. This is a static support region on the Comex Gold chart that will remain indefinitely at 875.0-913.5. The correlation in the GLD fluctuates marginally, and is currently found between 83.00-86.50, remaining a long-term downside target for the GLD.
Nearer term the GLD encounters two convergent descending channel bottoms in Nov at 96.41 – 98.31 that, if tested, can contain quarterly selling pressures – potentially eliciting what has become a fairly typical 3-5 month countertrend rally. This support region drops to 95.78-97.04 in December, to 95.15-95.76 in January, and 94.48-52 in February. Nevertheless, given my longer-term bearish dynamic a monthly settlement below these formation should not come as a great surprise, the targeted 83.00-86.50 region than expected within a mere 2-3 months, able to contain selling through 2016, quite possibly the balance of the decade.
Near-term upside resistance is found at 113.93 able to contain monthly buying pressures when tested, with a monthly settlement above 113.93 reversing momentum into later Q1, the 126.02-130.84 region then considered a 3-5 month target, narrowing monthly and able to contain strength through 2016, below which I continue to maintain a 12 to 18 month, 83.00-86.50 objective, illustrated earlier in this video. You can stay top of all the upside buy signals and downside sell signals over the coming months by subscribing to my Monthly ETF snapshot, only 19.99 a month. Stay tuned over the coming weeks and months for more market analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.